Malaysia: Still-solid goods export growth in June

研报英文原文证据摘录

Malaysia: Still-solid goods export growth in June

Global Markets Research

20 July 2026First Insights

Economics - ASEAN/Asia ex-Japan

Research Analysts

Malaysia: Still-solid goods export growth in June Asia Economics

Euben Paracuelles - NSL

• Export growth rose to 45.4% y-o-y in June from 44.7% in May, helped by rising oil and euben.paracuelles@nomura.com

gas exports. Electronics export growth also remained strong. +65 6433 6956

Yiru Chen - NSL • Import growth surged to 43.9% from 14.4%, with improvements fairly broad-based, yiru.chen1@nomura.com

resulting in the goods trade surplus narrowing sharply to MYR14.9bn from MYR39.9bn. +65 6433 6405

• We maintain our above-consensus 2026 GDP growth forecast of 5.2%, led by robust

domestic demand and a sustained global tech uptrend, and we see upside risks.

Export growth rose further in June

Export growth rose to a lower-than-expected but still-strong 45.4% y-o-y in June

(Consensus: 47.3%; Nomura: 51.7%) from 44.7% in May (see AsiaInsights-Malaysia:

ExportgrowthrosesharplyinMaywhileinflationpickedup, 19 June 2026). Domestic

export growth increased to 44.6% from 41.4%, while re-export growth eased to 48.7%

from 57.8%. This brings Q2 export growth to 42.4%, which is up significantly from 12.6%

in Q1.

The main source of downside surprise to our forecast was from electronics export growth,

which moderated to 56.9% y-o-y in June from 70.0% in May (Figure 1). Still, electronics

export growth surged to 57.4% in Q2 from 26.7% in Q1. This remains consistent with

global chip sales growth after taking into account a 6-8 month lag (Figure 2).

Fig. 1: Malaysia: Total goods versus electronics exports Fig. 2: Malaysia: Electronics exports versus global chip sales

Source: CEIC, Nomura Global Economics. Source: CEIC, Nomura Global Economics.