Updating US AF Ablation and LAAC Mkt Projections; Tempering AF, Toggling LAAC

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Updating US AF Ablation and LAAC Mkt Projections; Tempering AF, Toggling LAAC

USA | Medical Supplies & Devices EquityJulyResearch20, 2026

Updating US AF Ablation and LAAC Mkt

Projections; Tempering AF, Toggling LAAC

In this piece, we present updated '25-30 projections for US AF ablation and LAAC

volumes. We estimate AF ablation to grow at a ~12% CAGR and LAAC at ~10%,

with all LAAC growth attributable to the concomitant indication. We lowered our

AF ablation estimates, given the cumulative impact of de-novo ablations (1.5M

since '18), principally concentrated in the younger minority of AF patients, and

adjusted our standalone and concomitant LAAC assumptions.

Our projection assumes ~25% penetration of the AF depleted prevalence pool (DPP) in patients

50-69 YOA by '30, with 43% of volume growth due to the 70-79 YOA cohort. While we think our

penetration assumptions are plausible, we don’t view them as ungenerous. If one were to layer

a stricter segmentation filter into the DPP framework – for example, based on symptom burden

– even mid-teens volume growth over '25-30 would require aggressive penetration assumptions,

in our view. Another potential impediment to faster than modeled volume growth may be EP

personnel constraints.

For Left Atrial Appendage Closure (LAAC), we view the sub-group findings in previously ablated

patients in CHAMPION as supportive of OPTION and the concomitant indication. We model

concomitant penetration rising to 17% of ablations in '30 (123K cases). This compares to ~half of

ablated patients with CHADSVASC 3+ and ~28% with CHADSVASC 4+ (good candidates).

We have modeled concomitant penetration with a conservative bias for two reasons: 1) As of

'24, only 41% of EPs performing AF ablation participated in LAAC. We are virtually certain this