JPM | Initiate Nickel Industries at OW, 75% of copper inventories are now in the US, thoughts on Crude from JPM teams, Indo Energy and Yancoal

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JPM | Initiate Nickel Industries at OW, 75% of copper inventories are now in the US, thoughts on Crude from JPM teams, Indo Energy and Yancoal

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

21 July 2026

Monday.

• Commodity desk comment (h/t Sara Ramirez). Amazes me how rapidly we react on a bearish/de-escalatory headline,

whilst the apathy on any bullish headlines persists. I understand oil’s failure to break and hold >100 earlier this year has

fatigued the market, almost it feels to the point of no return, but the key difference was the level of inventory the global

market went into the conflict with in 1H. We started the war with a 400mb inventory buffer which combined with c700mb

SPR drawdowns plugged the gap in the market. Admittedly we’ve had c110mb of inventory released from the Strait over the

past couple of months as shipping temporarily increased, which should plug the gap over the summer, but if the conflict

persists into next month (and impacts transits in turn), bals could rapidly tighten. All eyes on actual transits via Hormuz

now, which remain at 1month lows, reportedly only 4 vessels made the crossing yesterday, down from 8 on Saturday. Vols are

now back to unch on the day, having rallied ~2v before we sold off. Flows quiet

• JPM Geopolitical Center view on Iran (Derek Chollet) Our center for geopolitics think the US blockade is still unlikely

to force Iran to fold. Tehran has a high pain threshold and the regime enters this phase with an economic cushion: it moved

tens of millions of barrels out of the Strait and cleared out storage tanks, providing additional breathing room for new

production. That leaves Washington with two realistic options: 1) Escalate by targeting civilian or energy infrastructure 2) Cut