Air Show: SciTec Win with Some Maturity to Come on Launch

研报英文原文证据摘录

Air Show: SciTec Win with Some Maturity to Come on Launch

nes) & maneuverability. 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E

. Alpha Eclipse

Alpha Demand Pull-Through as Falcon 9 Capacity Tightens. Alpha demand remains robust across Source: Company data, Jefferies estimates

both existing & new customers, w/ pricing power reinforced by scarcity in the dedicated small

Exhibit 2 - Trading at 3.9x FY2 EV/Saleslaunch market as ridesharing Falcon 9 capacity transitions to Starship. FLY's 1,000 kg Alpha vehicle 20x

is positioned to capture proliferated LEO missions alongside responsive natsec demand (VICTUS 18x16x

14x

12xHAZE and SOL) & capability to carry multiple hypersonic payloads. The focus remains on delivering 10x

payloads to the appropriate orbit rather than competing on $/kg, w/ Elytra potentially serving as 8x6x

a last-mile transfer vehicle for payloads on rideshares requiring a niche orbit. The 16-ton Eclipse 4x2x0x

vehicle in development with NOC is positioned to meet the demand of the marketplace w/ first flight .

no earlier than 2027. Source: FactSet, Jefferies Estimates

Maturing Into a Launch Cadence. FLY targets four Alpha launches in 2026, including the successful

Flight 7 in March, with Flight 8 in integration & testing and the follow-on flights progressing behind

it. Operational focus is on shortening cycle times between launches, with internal composite tanks

and tap-off cycle engines now on pace for greater cadence (~80% vertically integrated) w/ current

focus around integration & assembly process improvements. This includes launchpad projects w/

Vandenberg being configured to house multiple rockets in waiting to enable higher-rate launch

cadence, Wallops ongoing to support the Eclipse debut, and the Sweden site diversifying the