Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – South32 Ltd (S32J.J)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Jun 2025 Jun 2026e Jun 2027e Jun 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

EBITDA Margin total (%) 27 32 38 80 20 Jul 2026 4QFY26 Production Report

Total capex (US$mn) 1,265 1,367 1,847 1,406 26 Aug 2026 Full Year 2026 South32 Ltd Earnings Release

Total returns (%) 3.9 3.5 7.5 3.7

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Commodity prices and sales volumes are the RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Jun 2026e

biggest value drivers. Stronger-than-expected commodity prices or

Maintaining steady production rates at appreciation of the USD. Sales / 98,331

nameplate capacity will be important for assets Positive news with regard to S32's current Revenue 88,645 135,450

with a history of operational disruptions. exploration projects. (ZAR, mn) 105,325

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

Downgrades to production or cost guidance. 26,304

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE EBITDA

Weaker-than-expected commodity prices or 21,715 39,694

(ZAR, mn)

0-10% Japan depreciation of the USD. 31,555

0-10% Latin America

0-10% North America OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 14,878

0-10% UK Net income

13,291 17,713 APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Inst. Owners, % Active 40.8% (ZAR, mn) 10-20% China and India 15,640

10-20% MEA HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

10-20% Mainland China HF Sector Net Exposure 2.1% 330.9

30-40% Europe ex UK EPS 295.0 393.3 Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund (ZAc)

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate exposures held with MSPB. Information may be 342.5

View explanation of regional hierarchies here inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short 106.7

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a DPS