Yara - All Roads Lead to Henry

研报英文原文证据摘录

Yara - All Roads Lead to Henry

EUROPE | Chemicals

Yara EquityJulyResearch21, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEYara - All Roads Lead to Henry

We adjust our EBITDA estimates -4%/+10%/+9% over FY26/27/28 RATING HOLD

(incorporating updated fertiliser price estimates, and Yara's new US PRICE NOK451.30^

Ammonia acquisition). We raise our PT to NOK 480 and maintain our PRICE TARGET | % TO PT NOK480.00 (NOK470.00)

HOLD rating. While our view on the Ag cycle into 2H26/2027 remains | +6%

52W HIGH-LOW NOK599.40 - NOK353.40

weak, we think Yara remains strategically well positioned with high-quality

FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 62.9% | 23.88

management and disciplined capital allocation.

MARKET CAP NOK115.0B | $11.9B

Operationally, we remain cautious on the agricultural cycle into 2H26 and 2027 but upgrade TICKER YAR NO

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

earnings to reflect GCA contribution. We have incorporated our updated fertiliser price deck noted.

and the contribution from Yara’s new Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) facility from 2027 onward.

While crop prices have improved by c.9% in the last month, we still forecast net farmer incomes

declining by 490bps in 2026F, followed by only a modest 160bps recovery in 2027F. Overall, FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

we raise our EBITDA estimates by c.5% on average across the next three years, leaving us 3% 2026 2027 2026 2027

above consensus. REV -1% -3% +1% -3%

EPS -7% +23% +37% NM

Projects Not So Blue? We view management’s decision not to proceed with the previously

proposed ~$2.0-2.25bn acquisition of ammonia assets at Air Products’ Louisiana Clean 2026 ($) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

Energy Complex as further evidence of disciplined capital allocation and a continued focus EPS -- -- -- -- 6.27

on shareholder returns.