Risk Reward Update: Cheng Shin Rubber | Asia Pacific

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update: Cheng Shin Rubber | Asia Pacific

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Cheng Shin Rubber (2105.TW)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Sales volume growth (%) (1) 1 1 1

ASP growth (%) (4) (1) (1) (1)

Operating expense ratio (%) 14.8 15.0 15.0 15.0

Inventory days 91 91 91 91

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Growth in emerging markets and broader RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

adoption across additional car models through Faster-than-expected increase in demand in

EU OEM relationships. China. Sales / 91,556

Lower raw material prices. Lower-than-expected raw material prices. Revenue Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

Higher dividend payout ratio. Stronger-than-expected replacement tire (NT$, mn) consensus data for this metric

demand globally.

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Favorable CNY/USD rate supporting GpM

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 6,409 0-10% North America EBIT

10-20% Europe ex UK Slower-than-expected increase in demand in (NT$, mn) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland China. consensus data for this metric 20-30%

China and India Higher-than-expected raw material prices.

50-60% Mainland China Weaker-than-expected replacement tire

demand globally. 1.40Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

EPS

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (NT$) consensus data for this metric

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 19.3%

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

2/5 3 Month Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research MOST Horizon

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored

Quintile