Mexico Petrochemicals: Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Mexico Petrochemicals: Model Update

Milene Clifford Carvalho AC Latin America Equity Research

(55-11) 4950-3475 20 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

milene.carvalho@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Alpek (Overweight; Price Target: Ps17.00)

Investment Thesis

We rate Alpek Overweight. We expect integrated PET margin expansion to drive a

stronger EBITDA trajectory as post-conflict dislocations push ocean freight costs above

levels embedded in guidance, improving Alpek’s relative competitiveness versus imports

with clearer impact from 2Q26 onward. Firmer demand is supporting paraxylene (PX) pass-

through, and with no clear evidence of demand destruction, volumes should track better than

previously assumed. Contracted volumes also retain PX pass-through clauses, allowing

Alpek to capture higher feedstock pricing. New management’s renewed focus on

deleveraging adds further support. Lastly, potential inclusion in the IPC could provide

upside via incremental index-related demand, but timing and eligibility remain uncertain.

Valuation

Our December 2026 price target for Alpek is Ps17.0/sh. We value Alpek based on a

combination of DCF (50%) and EV/EBITDA (50%), using a WACC of 9.5% and a fair

EV/EBITDA of 5.2x (10y historical average).

Risks to Rating and Price Target

• Spreads below expectations: Our thesis assumes the current post Middle-East conflict

backdrop keeps the integrated PET chain tighter than before. If conditions normalize

faster than we expect, or if the industry response (imports, operating rates, pricing)

proves more aggressive, integrated spreads could revert sooner, creating downside to

our EBITDA estimates.

• Failing to meet guidance: If management’s EBITDA targets are not met, shares could