CaixaBank: 2Q26 has more in the tank. Overweight

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CaixaBank: 2Q26 has more in the tank. Overweight

CABK2Q26ResultsPreview–P&L and Table 2CABK2Q26ResultsPreview–BalanceShet,Capital,AsetQualityandKeyRatios): Key Changes (FYE Dec)

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• Mortgage activity. The latest BoS data show mortgage loan growth holding Adj. EPS - 27E (€) 1.02 1.07 5.3%

steady at +3.9% YoY in May even as new lending slows (April+May up +1.4%

YoY). CABK has gained 30bps of market share since December 2024 (1Q26: Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

24.2%) having underwritten close to 25% of new lending over the period. We Adj. EPS (€)

2025A 2026E 2027E

expect growing investor scrutiny of the strategy’s sustainability, and how it Q1 0.20 0.21A 0.26

feeds through the group’s wealth management and insurance business. Q2 0.20 0.21 0.26

Q3 0.19 0.24 0.28

• Volumes, prices, and room to add to the structural hedge. We expect CABK Q4 0.20 0.24 0.28

Group’s deposit growth (+6.0% YoY) to edge past loan growth (+5.8% YoY), FY 0.79 0.91 1.07

with customer spread at 3.01% (+1bps QoQ). Growing non-maturing deposits

Style Exposure and rising yields (Figure 3Yieldsontheriseand Figure 4Romtolock-inhigherratesintheALCObok) have handed CABK the chance to keep

adding to its structural hedge.

• Revenues from services. We expect income from WM+Insurance+Banking

fees to accelerate (+7.9% YoY from +7.5% in 1Q26), leaving 1H26 +7.7%

YoY—well ahead of the mid-single digit guidance for the year. Inverco data

show CABK’s own mutual funds AuM up +6.2% QoQ, including a recovery

in net new money to +0.8% of opening AuM after a weak 1Q26. We sit +2%

above consensus on services revenues in 2Q26, and +2% above on average

across 2026-28.

• Daily banking fees: where Spanish competition stands, and where it's

headed. We expect daily banking fees at CABK Spain to flatten (0% YoY) after