Mexico Equity Strategy: 2Q26 Earnings Estimates: Q Kicks Off With Misses; Materials Start to Lose Steam

研报英文原文证据摘录

Mexico Equity Strategy: 2Q26 Earnings Estimates: Q Kicks Off With Misses; Materials Start to Lose Steam

ding out, while Consumer remains the dominant

overhang and Financials and Airports lack clear near-term catalysts for EWW-Weighted Growth Estimate Summary

reacceleration. Current Expected EWW Growth

Expected y/y Growth

• Staples remains the key drag, with retail SSS decelerating meaningfully Per. MetricRevenue 1M1.6p.p.Move Street6% JPM2%

through the quarter, food retailers facing renewed downside risk from weak 2Q26e EBITDA 1.5p.p. 12% 8%

volumes and sticky SG&A, bottlers still contending with sluggish demand in Controlling Income 2.2p.p. 14% 8%

Revenue 0.4p.p. 5% 1%

Mexico, and restaurants seeing further traffic pressure as consumers trade 2026e EBITDA 0.9p.p. 10% 5%

down and discretionary spending softens. Controlling Income 0.7p.p. 16% 10%

Revenue 0.1p.p. 5% -1%

• Financials appear set for an uninspiring quarter, with generally stable loan 2027e EBITDA 0.8p.p. 3% -3%

growth but limited earnings momentum, ongoing NIM pressure and asset- Controlling Income 0.9p.p. 6% -6%

quality concerns lingering at some lenders. Source:BloombergCompanyFinancereports,L.P. J.P. Morgan estimates, and

• By contrast, Real Estate remains relatively resilient, supported by MSD Notes: Data as of July 17, 2026

revenue growth, healthy embedded leasing spreads, and continued execution

across industrial and logistics portfolios despite subdued nearshoring demand

and USMCA uncertainty.

• Construction materials should again rank among the more constructive areas,

with cost savings, infrastructure-driven demand, and improving underlying

trends helping offset energy-cost headwinds, while Grupo Mexico should

continue to benefit from higher copper prices.