Retail and Automotives: Rec changes and recommendations: Downgrade LOV/BLX

研报英文原文证据摘录

Retail and Automotives: Rec changes and recommendations: Downgrade LOV/BLX

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

21 July 2026

Retail and Automotives

Rec changes and recommendations: Downgrade LOV/

BLX

Within this note, we downgrade LOV and BLX to Underweight, highlight key Australia

earnings changes and discuss where and why we differ from consensus estimates.

Emerging Companies

Company Focal points Don Carducci AC

(61-2) 9003-8379

D/G to Underweight. Valuation prices in strong execution of store rollout - JPMe resets

donald.n.carducci@jpmorgan.com

LOV longer-term store assumptions - more challenging US outlook. JPMe 2.4%/7.1% below

consensus EBIT for FY27/FY28. George Stewart AC

(61-2) 9003-8199

D/G to Underweight. Retail sales tied to slowing housing turnover. Expecting lower GMs in

george.stewart@jpmorgan.com

FY27, given freight + factory cost headwinds and mix shift to trade sales. Structurally lower

BLX J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

GMs from trade mix, i.e., ~8-12% margin for cable/wiring (currently ~5% of group sales) vs.

store average of ~70%.

US consumer resilient at the top end - Chase Card data and BB/Williams-Sonoma read-

BRG throughs de-risk 2H26 top line. JPMe in line with consensus on EBIT; freight the key FY27 Investor sentiment vs. expected EPS

revisions watch (SCFI +142% since March).

ARB relevant sales -15%/-7.8% in 2H26/FY26 - largely supply-driven, not structural. Q4

weakness creates 1H27 earnings pressure, given attachment lag; FY27 skewed to 2H.

ARB

Trading 2SD below historical average - recovery in Toyota volumes + execution in US are re-

rate catalysts.

JPMe -2%/-3% below consensus for FY26/27 PBT - near-term ROS compression from

APE normalising supply and lower F&I penetration as NEV/fleet mix grows. BYD June pull-forward