2Q Preview: All Eyes on GPU

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q Preview: All Eyes on GPU

We believe that in

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

order to see the stock gap up towards our $102 PT (26x fwd adj EBITDA vs. 19x framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

today), the company will need to 1) deliver a strong earnings beat with constructive § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

forward commentary to drive positive estimate revisions, 2) offer a substantive Quarterly EPS ($)

update on a new narrative or strategic opportunity (perhaps an announcement of an 2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

Investor Day), or 3) experience an inflection in market sentiment, either via Q1 0.30 - 0.34a - -

consumer confidence improvement above and beyond what we've already seen play Q2 0.26 - 0.42 - -

Q3 0.21 - 0.50 - -

out over the last week, or in a broadening trade. The mixed sentiment and lighter Q4 0.84 - 0.44 - -

positioning going into this print vs. 1Q can support a positive reaction on the result. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

Where we stand: We remain convicted in CVNA's ability to execute against a

transitory retail GPU headwind (2Q guide was likely conservative) and maintain its

strong growth trajectory (supply rather than demand constrained), which when

combined with easing consumer fears (already beginning to play out across Auto

Retail), can catalyze a path towards partially recovering the ~8+ turns of multiple

compression from January peaks. Our $102 PT implies a ~26x multiple on FY27

EBITDA of ~$4.45bn vs. stock trading at ~19x today. Below, we detail 5 key focus

areas into earnings.

Exhibit 1: Buy Side Expectations vs. MSe and Cons