Greater China Semiconductors: US Marketing Takeaways

研报英文原文证据摘录

Greater China Semiconductors: US Marketing Takeaways

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20 Jul 2026 15:18:56 ET │ 16 pages

Greater China Semiconductors

US Marketing Takeaways

CITI'S TAKE

Kevin Chen AC

We return from our US marketing (July 13-17) after meeting 50+ investors in +852-2501-2125

New York, Boston, and San Francisco. We found US investor sentiment very kevin.y.chen@citi.com

nervous regarding the sustainability of the memory and AI capex uptrend,

with many reluctant to buy recent dips. Key concerns center on an eventual Kyna Wong

US hyperscaler capex slowdown, growing memory supply from China, and kyna.wong@citi.com

disruption from Chinese AI models such as Kimi K3. However, we believe

fears of aggressive capacity expansion from Chinese memory makers are Karen Huang

unlikely to materialize in 2026-27. We also see continuing price uptrend in karen.xw.huang@citi.com

2H26 and prefer analog > OSAT > Power discrete. Our stock picks: Montage

Yiming Li, CFA(robust fundamentals + unmatched product pipeline, ASMPT (backend AP

capex super cycle, semicap rally), Chroma ATE (multiple AI-driven growth yiming.li@citi.com

drivers), and SG Micro (analog pricing upside in 2H26).

US investor sentiment ‘very nervous’ — Most investors that we talked to were still

optimistic on memory pricing and expected DRAM uptrend to continue into end-

2027. That said, US investors approach the bull/bear argument from a demand angle,

with jittery sentiment on concerns of: 1) US hyperscalers’ eventual capex slowdown

in 2027-28, 2) growing DRAM/NAND supply from China, and 3) cheaper Kimi K3

disrupting US AI model monetization and future investment. Despite recent share

corrections, most investors were reluctant to buy the dips at this point.

The rise of Chinese memory: CXMT & YMTC — Many US investors worried CXMT