Indonesia Energy: Diesel crunch, margin strength; Upgrade AKRA to OW and raise TPIA‘s price target

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Indonesia Energy: Diesel crunch, margin strength; Upgrade AKRA to OW and raise TPIA‘s price target

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

21 July 2026

Indonesia Energy

Diesel crunch, margin strength; Upgrade AKRA to OW

and raise TPIA’s price target

Crude oil prices remain volatile, and investors are hesitant to build conviction Indonesia Energy

ACaround Middle East geopolitical risks. Our JPM Commodities team notes that the Arnanto Januri

supply shock is increasingly becoming a refining story rather than simply a crude (622-1) 5291 8047

supply story, likely creating further tightness in the diesel market (report). EU and arnanto.januri@jpmorgan.com

US diesel cracks have surged to record highs, and Singapore’s diesel cracks have PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia

surpassed their 2022 peak. In this environment, we upgrade AKRA to Overweight Benny Kurniawan, CFA

with a new price target of Rp1,850/sh and raise our price target on TPIA to Rp1,960/ (62-21) 5291 8024

benny.kurniawan@jpmorgan.com

sh, while maintaining a Neutral rating on valuation. We increase AKRA’s PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia

2026/27E earnings by 29%/11% to reflect stronger distribution margins amid tight

Parsley Ong

diesel supply, putting our forecasts at the Street high and 6–22% above consensus. (65) 6882-8578

For TPIA, we lift 2026/27E EBITDA by 22%/33% on Aster’s higher gross refining parsley.rh.ong@jpmorgan.com

margins (GRM). J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited/

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

• Tight diesel market. Refined product exports from the Persian Gulf briefly

rebounded to 1.9mbd vs. 3.0mbd before the conflict, but have slid back down