From Molehill To Mountain

研报英文原文证据摘录

From Molehill To Mountain

uidance, meaningfully below our prior estimated $45-65m, given

key long-lead items have been oversized during Stage 1. The 1.5Mtpa uplift adds ~$146.1m /

Earnings Changes: We have increased

18c/sh to our NPV valuation.

production in the short and medium term in

Liquidity Remains Stable. At the Q4FY26 release on 16-Jul-26 we analysed A1M's liquidity accordance with the newly issued guidance.

balance and optionality through 1HFY27, concluding existing sources were sufficient to fund We have increased capex in FY27 and FY28

the remaining Jericho and Eloise expansion spend. While we acknowledge today's capex in-line with management commentary.

increase from the 1.5Mtpa pull-forward, inclusive of a ~$20m uplift in Jericho development

plus surface infrastructure now landing in 1H ($10m tailings/water storage, $3m mill spares), Figure 1 - Eloise Production Outlook

this is offset by the US$10m (A$15.1m) Trafigura facility upsize and an $11.1m operating 28 Guidance/Outlook Range JEFe VAe JEFe Old

24cash flow uplift on the higher 1HFY27 production outlook (Figure 2). Net liquidity of ~A$48.4m kt- 26

22modelled through 1HFY27 sits only modestly below our pre-announcement ~A$52.5m, despite Production 20

higher near-term capex. The Trafigura facility upsize of US$10m (A$15.1m) takes the total to 18

Copper 16

US$50m with US$20m (~A$30m) undrawn. Eloise 14

10Underlying value. On our forecasts, A1M trades at 0.50x P/NPV and 2.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29

.

increasing from $106m in FY26E to $188m in FY27E (+77%) as Stage 1 commissions and Source: Company Reports, Visible Alpha, Jefferies

Jericho enters commercial production, then $224m FY28E (+19%) and $304m FY29E (+36%)

Figure 2 - H1 FY27 Liquidity Balance

on the 1.5Mtpa pull-forward.