AstraZeneca Plc | Europe A Tougher H2‘26, but a Stronger 2027

研报英文原文证据摘录

AstraZeneca Plc | Europe A Tougher H2‘26, but a Stronger 2027

IdeaMstrong presentation, particularly around overall exacerbation reduction (~20-25% in

ITT; ~20-25% for eosinophil <300; ~≥30% for eosinophil ≥300), could be enough to

drive forecast upgrades.

Sequencing of catalysts remains a debate…We estimate AVANZAR reached the

required PFS events for QCS in October or November 2025 and for ITT in June or

July 2026. Allowing for database lock and analysis, this points to topline data in

September 2026. Applying the same framework to SERENA-4 and anchoring to

persevERA’s 620 PFS events, we estimate the required 850 to 870 events accrue by

September or October, supporting a November or December readout. Timing

remains sensitive to the underlying assumptions, but the bigger debate is effect size.

For SERENA-4, at an HR of 0.87 to 0.88, close to our estimated statistical boundary,

the margin for error is limited, consistent with the 60% probability of success in our

model.

The downside looks better priced, but for now, the stock lacks an easy path

higher. With the stock now trading on ~14.5x 2027 P/E, we believe uncertainty

around the aforementioned catalysts are better priced, with risk / reward skewed to

the upside. However, with no straightforward path to a near-term re-rating, we

expect the shares to remain range-bound until positive clinical data emerge. Failure

of both trials would imply ~£115/share, versus ~£141/share, on success with a clear

re-rating path to our base case valuation of £153/share. Looking beyond the near-

term catalysts, the innovation outlook strengthens from 2027, led by camizestrant

in adjuvant breast cancer and saruparib in prostate cancer (PARP1 selective),

supporting an attractive long-term setup.