JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - SMH: (S)haking (M)y (H)ead

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - SMH: (S)haking (M)y (H)ead

Specialist Sales

US Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

16 July 2026

JPMorgan Strategy's latest retail radar (here) reinforces this rotation in real time. A few clips worth highlighting:

• Retail flows decelerated to 24% below their YTD average, driven by weaker ETF flows (18%ile) while single-stock activity

also slowed (to 51%ile from 86%ile last week).

• Within sectors, positioning in Semis turned modestly more defensive, with investors selling SOXL (-1.8z) and buying SOXS

(1.6z)

• Retail investors continue to add exposure to Tech and Communications. The Mag 7 have reasserted themselves as positioning

in Semis has softened so far in July: NVDA, TSLA, and MSFT lead month-to-date buying

This dynamic is echoing in institutional flow as well. My derivatives desk has begun seeing demand for MAG7 upside

materialize through calls and call spreads, with investors also selling puts to finance upside. This is a notable contrast to prior

trends dominated almost exclusively by Semis and Memory upsides. Screen flows are simultaneously showing sizable selling in

DRAM calls.

Investors are beginning to question if MAG7 (hyperscalers) should regain its “Magnificent” title after its more recent

“LAG7” price action.

Why? Companies with durable growth, pricing power, and relatively cleaner positioning are beginning to look like a more

asymmetric bet in the AI world than fragile, margin-dependent chip names. The pushback, of course, is the continued hyperscaler

capex spend and the primary issuance activity that is quietly chipping away at balance sheet health.

JPM is hosting a call to address these questions: Hyperscalers Joint Equity & Credit Discussion (July 20, 11am ET) - register

here!

J.P. Morgan Speakers: