China Taiping Insurance - H: 1H26 Profit Alert: Earnings growth (85-95% oya surge) Shines, but Dividend is the Key

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Taiping Insurance - H: 1H26 Profit Alert: Earnings growth (85-95% oya surge) Shines, but Dividend is the Key

Dan Wang Asia Pacific Equity Research

(86-21) 6106-6349 19 July 2026

dan.wang@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis

China Taiping is the longest-operating SOE insurer, coupled with a strong track record of serving national needs. Based on

total gross written premiums, the company’s life/non-life segments Taiping Life and Taiping P&C held 4.1%/1.8% China

market shares, respectively, in FY25. Post the pre-emptive new business mix towards participating policies, we expect the

company might rapidly reduce the blended funding cost and alleviate the NBV sensitivity to interest rate movements. We

forecast 14% oya growth in FY26E NBV, supported by stabilizing agent headcount, and margin enhancement profile. As

China Taiping has secured advantages of extensive bancassurance outlets layout, we expect enhanced bank partnership,

especially activating low-performing outlets in low-tier cities, might bring incremental NBV contribution. One caveat is

that the stock’s high beta character appears sustained as further equity allocation into FVOCI has not mitigated the earnings

sensitivity against equity swings. The current valuation of 0.27x P/EV (below the 0.3x historical average) looks to largely

price in downside risk under a bearish market scenario, leaving meaningful potential upside should the market recover. OW

Valuation

Our Dec-26 PT of HK$30.0 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology. We assign an 8x FY26E

P/E to the life business (similar to the multiple we assign to other life peers), a 4x P/E to the non-life business and 3x to the

reinsurance business, along with a 1x P/E to Others. Our Dec-26 PT implies a 8x FY26E P/E at the consolidated level,