JPM | Industrial Spec Sales - Sunday Machinations: ‘Hey, Hey, Hey, What‘s Going On?‘

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JPM | Industrial Spec Sales - Sunday Machinations: ‘Hey, Hey, Hey, What‘s Going On?‘

here)). That said, Airbus have a tricky task

ahead. They need to thread the needle of keeping a lid on near-term forecasts while still offering insight into the sunny uplands of

what margins might be when rate 75 is hit. The hope is that we hear from the Commercial Aircraft CEO Lars Wagner about

actions that Airbus has taken and will take to add resiliency to its supply chain. Investments here could bring 27/28e consensus

down a bit (we are still below but the gap has closed since the FY. This would give more confidence that the path to rate 75 is

cleaner and that double digit margins can be reached. Unkindly I have described this as moving away from a 'jam tomorrow'

strategy to a 'there's jam in the cupboard' strategy - but if investors can get confident that the cupboard will ultimately be

opened and that this is not dependent on negotiations with engine suppliers and other matters outside their control, the market will

likely cheer the event - even if the cheers come once the news (if not the jam) is digested. It's also worth noting that civil

aerospace caught a small bid on Friday despite being one of the well owned sectors. Defence shares also picked up - but I'm very

much of the opinion that this illustrates people have got increasingly short the German stocks while the defence electronics names

offer a non AI dependent hiding place.

Nokian Tyres and Autoliv don’t offer a great snapshot of the autos industry. Autoliv is the highest quality supplier - and

consistently outperforms underlying auto production levels - but still guided to 0% organic growth for H2 (see Jose's wrap here)

while Nokian Tyres is something of a special sit (see Jose's wrap here).