Quick Silver: SAP (N; TP €175) | Thoughts into Earnings

研报英文原文证据摘录

Quick Silver: SAP (N; TP €175) | Thoughts into Earnings

Scott Silver - Specialist Sales - European TMT AC (44-20) 7134-0412 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nscott.silver@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 20 July 2026

Scott Silver

+44 207 134 0412

scott.silver@jpmorgan.com

Across Europe, investor sentiment on software remains cautious, with AI disruption continuing to dominate the debate. SAP

is firmly in focus ahead of numbers this week (Thurs 23rd after US close), with CCB growth once again the key metric.

Current buyside expectations sit at around 25%, including roughly 100bps from Reltio, implying organic CCB growth of

c.24% (i.e a decel). Toby Ogg’s preview (see HERE) is slightly below consensus on an organic basis at 24%, while

assuming a 70-80bps contribution from Reltio. Investor feedback also suggests management has struck a relatively cautious

tone on the macro while on the road over recent months. Importantly, SAP’s 2026 guidance, updated in April, assumed a

near-term de-escalation in the Middle East. With the conflict ongoing into July, investors increasingly see this as a potential

risk to enterprise spending. As one client summarised, the setup is challenging given: (1) continued uncertainty around

Hormuz, (2) the EU Commission ruling reducing SAP’s leverage on migration timing, (3) customers delaying IT spending

during the final weeks of June when CCB bookings are typically most concentrated, and (4) the CEO currently covering two

roles. Toby was out at Sapphire a few months back and felt that it helped articulate SAP’s long-term AI strategy more

clearly, but investors continue to question execution. The missing piece remains tangible evidence that AI capabilities are

driving meaningful customer adoption.