CGM Commodities Trading Tracker (June 26)

研报英文原文证据摘录

CGM Commodities Trading Tracker (June 26)

rkets. We note, while 40%

the models explain a high degree of historical earnings variability, forecast accuracy is likely 20%

to be lower during periods of market dislocation, when trading outcomes can be influenced by

factors not captured in historical relationships. 0%

1H17A 2H17A 1H18A 2H18A 1H19A 2H19A 1H20A 2H20A 1H21A 2H21A 1H22A 2H22A 1H23A 2H23A 1H24A 2H24A 1H25A 2H25A 1H26A 2H26A 1H27E

1Q27 market conditions remain constructive. Market conditions through 1Q27 have . Actual/JEFe Regression model Consensus Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, Jefferies research

remained broadly supportive, following a soft start to the quarter. Favourable gas and power Consensus based on VAe trading income, and JEFe

commodity trading asset balance

market conditions, elevated storage inventories and ongoing commodity market dislocations

have continued to provide trading opportunities. While volatility has moderated from recent Chart 2 - CGM Inventory management &

peaks in some asset classes, overall conditions remain supportive relative to historical norms. trading income yield

100%

R2 97%

80% Forecast

Models imply upside to 1H27E and FY27 guidance. Current market indicators imply trading

yields above both the pcp and our 1H27 forecasts across Risk Management and Inventory 60%40%

Management & Trading. Should conditions hold through 2Q27, our models imply a c$180m 20%

0%uplift to our current 1H27 NPAT forecasts (+8%).

-20%

AGM likely to provide the next key test. MQG will hold its 2026 AGM on Thursday, 23 1H17A 2H17A 1H18A 2H18A 1H19A 2H19A 1H20A 2H20A 1H21A 2H21A 1H22A 2H22A 1H23A 2H23A 1H24A 2H24A 1H25A 2H25A 1H26A 2H26A 1H27E

July.