Evolution Gaming: Model update: Remain UW, with new PT at 565 SEK (vs prior 550 SEK)

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Evolution Gaming: Model update: Remain UW, with new PT at 565 SEK (vs prior 550 SEK)

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

20 July 2026

Evolution Gaming Underweight

EVO.ST, EVO SS

Model update: Remain UW, with new PT at 565 SEK (vs Price (17 Jul 26):Skr691.40

prior 550 SEK) ▲Price Target (Dec-27):Skr565.00 Prior (Dec-27):Skr550.00

We update our model following on from Evolution’s Q2 results on Friday (first take

here). We keep our estimates broadly unchanged across both revs and EBITDA, European Leisure, Hotels & Gaming

with a modest reallocation of regional growth assumptions based on recent trends Karan Puri AC

(Europe now modelled higher; Asia lower). (44-20) 7742-8342

karan.puri@jpmorgan.com

Our new Dec-27 PT is 565 SEK (vs prior 550 SEK), based on a slightly higher J.P. Morgan Securities plc

regulated-markets multiple (up 0.5x to 8.5x FY 28E EV/EBITDA; unregulated- Estelle Weingrod

markets multiple unchanged) following the conclusion of the UKGC licence (44-20) 7742-8502

estelle.weingrod@jpmorgan.com

review and a better-than-expected Q2 in Europe. That said, we reiterate J.P. Morgan Securities plc

our UW rating given several ongoing headwinds to the equity story, including Asia Avni Garg

volatility, Europe channelization risk, a potential slowdown in North America as (91-22) 6157-3431

seen in the most recent data, and an evolving Brazilian regulatory backdrop. avni.garg@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Asia (~35% of sales) remains the most challenging part of the story, with no near-

term inflection in sight. Hacking continues to weigh despite EVO’s mitigation

efforts; government crackdowns persist; and we remain cautious on the Key Changes (FYE Dec)

competitive landscape, with peers such as Pragmatic and Asia Gaming often Prev Cur Δ