A Critical Second Half in the Game to Deliver: Stay Hold Despite Higher Prices

研报英文原文证据摘录

A Critical Second Half in the Game to Deliver: Stay Hold Despite Higher Prices

t has identified further FCF/share upside driven Exhibit 1 - IPP 2027, 2028, & 2029 Free

by buybacks, the Amazon ramp, M&A, data center PPAs and PPL zone basis normalization; each Cash Flow Yields as Published Excluding

Unannounced Data Centers & Buybacks

contributing 10%+ of FCF accretion. Excluding buybacks creates comparability

18%

Formal EBITDA/FCF guidance update at 2Q call; we do not expect any deal announcement. 16% 2027 2028 2029

Expect strong 2Q results on new asset additions and capacity price increases. TLN to provide formal 14%

2026 EBITDA and FCF guidance following Cornerstone close. An update on 2027 and 2028 EBITDA 12%

and FCF outlook is pending, but not clear it will be provided at the call. 10%

8%

Decrease PT by $31 to $422 to reflect lower MtM for power prices and higher FCF yields. TLN 6%

down ~15% since our last update in late June when it was trading near an all-time high; we continue 4%

to see shares fairly valued. Net negative updates in recent weeks with PJM backstop procurement 2%

.potentially higher vs. 2028/29 auction shortfall depending on the Board decision, and Connect & NRG TLN VST TA CN CPX CN HNRG Source: Jefferies LLC, Bloomberg, S&P Capital IQ, FactSet, &

Manage back in play. We still believe material new generation will be a requirement to address Company Filings

affordability commitments. In a world where additionality & affordability are critical, data center

Despite underperformance in the pastdeals without substantial new generation are harder to underwrite. TLN is increasingly open to

three weeks, TLN continues to trade atnew generation with its "hybrid" model approach, which would partially address affordability, but would

premium vs. peers.