Essity: Higher costs weigh on H2 delivery; activist shareholder unlikely to change strategic course

研报英文原文证据摘录

Essity: Higher costs weigh on H2 delivery; activist shareholder unlikely to change strategic course

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

20 July 2026

Essity Underweight

ESSITYB.ST, ESSITYB SS

Higher costs weigh on H2 delivery; activist shareholder Price (17 Jul 26):Skr282.80

unlikely to change strategic course Price Target (Dec-27):Skr215.00

Following Essity’s Q226 results we update our model. We leave EPS 26E broadly European Food Producers,

unchanged, with slightly lowered FY LFL offset by more favourable FX. We now Household & Personal Care

expect organic sales growth this year at +1.9% (from +2.4% prior) with lowered Products, Beverages & Tobacco

pricing to +1.0% (from +1.3%) and volumes at +1.0%. With a “significant Celine Pannuti, CFA AC

increase” in COGS in Q3, pricing will need to quickly accelerate from -1.1% in Q2 (44-20) 7134-7123

to JPMe +1.9% in Q3 and +3.7% in Q4 to offset a COGS inflation acceleration celine.pannuti@jpmorgan.com

towards JPMe M-HSD. There are clearly risks to such a scenario, along with the Edward G Hockin

potential for elasticity to weigh on volumes of +0.7% in Q3, and cost to pressure (44-20) 7742-6937

edward.hockin@jpmorgan.com

EBITA margins. With the news of an activist stake in Essity (link), the shares were J.P. Morgan Securities plc

supported last Friday. However, the levers for value creation are unclear to us, and

management is already engaged in a strategic review of Consumer Tissue, with Specialist Sales contact details:

limited scope for value creation given risks from stranded costs and amount of Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

proceeds. The activist’s press release also endorses the current strategy and European Consumer

management, suggesting little change in direction. We remain -2%/-6% below (44-20) 3493-3709