LATAM FIRST TO MARKET

研报英文原文证据摘录

LATAM FIRST TO MARKET

Latin America Equity Research

LatAm First to Market 20 July 2026

Top Stories

Mexican Banks (Yuri R Fernandes/Guilherme Grespan)

What to Expect in 2Q26 - An Uninspiring Quarter Ahead and Below Consensus for Most Names

Following the recent release of May figures (link), we are updating our 2Q26 estimates and have also moved our price targets

to Dec-2027. We expect weak set of results: we are broadly in line with Banorte, Banco del Bajio, Bolsa, and Qualitas, while we

are ~5% below consensus for Gentera, ~8% below for Regional, and ~ 4% below for Inbursa. We believe the focus for most

names will be potential guidance revisions (i.e. Regional’s NIM and EPS and Gentera’s CoR and loan growth appear to be the

most challenging ones). We also expect investors to ask about banks’ ability to accelerate growth in 2H26 - a driver that was

heavily reliant on the USMCA renewal and may prove disappointing. Despite greater short-term uncertainty, our view is that low

banking loan penetration in Mexico and fintech competition combined with high consumer demand may sustain credit growth

above 1.5x nominal GDP. Thus, we continue to call for most names printing 8-10% loan growth this year. While we see Banorte

and Bajio broadly in line with consensus this quarter, we also note these names should deliver mostly flat Q-o-Q earnings,

which reinforces the view of a lack of momentum in 2Q26. For Banorte, the credit bureau sale in 1Q26 (~Ps. 500mn) creates a

tough comparison vs. 1Q26, while 2Q25 had a pretty high trading gain. Still, we forecast improved margins and a lower cost of

risk (normalizing after 1Q26). For Bajío, we see April–May cost of risk tracking well, helping offset some margin pressure,

though we believe cost of risk may not remain as low.