Pampa Energia: From Molecules To Market

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Pampa Energia: From Molecules To Market

competitive (US$3/mmBtu) feedstock. Given that gas and electricity typically represent c70% of 250200

urea cash costs, to us these integration benefits are underappreciated by the market. 150

Manageable leverage. Its growth initiatives (LPG, Urea, LNG & pipeline projects) total US$8.8bn 50

of capex net to Pampa through 2030. We expect most of this to be project-financed, and see 0

Pampa’s consolidated leverage peaking at 1.8-2.0x by 2028 (from 1.1x at 1Q26), which to us looks

manageable given limited near-term debt maturities. .Source: Jefferies ests. * @US$3/mmBtu. ** @ US$60/MWh.

*** @8% rate

2Q26 results preview. Pampa’s 2Q26 results are due Aug 4th, and we forecast US$0.4bn EBITDA,

+24% QoQ and c15% above FactSet cons. This should be driven by solid E&P performance (US

Exhibit 2 - LatAm Oils share price performance

$0.18bn divisional EBITDA, almost 2x vs 2Q25) thanks to seasonally strong gas volumes/pricing in US$

60.0%and higher shale oil prod (23kb/d, +18% QoQ). We also see an improved Power Generation

50.0% YTD -1Month

contribution (US$0.15bn divisional EBITDA, +50% QoQ), led by higher electricity prices. 40.0%

30.0%

Keeping our Buy call. Reflecting improved gas and power pricing, we up our 2026E EBITDA ests 20.0%10.0%

for Pampa by c8%. Pampa shares are down c10% YTD in US$ terms in stark contrast with the +38% 0.0%

average seen for LatAm oil & gas peers. To us, this reflects investor scepticism about the company’s (10.0%) Pampa YPF GPRK MSCI Brava Global Vista Parex Brent PRIO PBR

(IXC)growth strategy and leverage, rather than its underlying business performance. Pampa trades at . LatAm Energy Energy

c30% NAV discount and 3.8x EV/EBITDA 2027E, which we see as undemanding given the improved Source: FactSet; Jefferies.