Growth Catalysts Derisking; Eyes on the Next Leg - Reiterate BUY

研报英文原文证据摘录

Growth Catalysts Derisking; Eyes on the Next Leg - Reiterate BUY

(Exhibit 1), with first oil from these projects

now just 12-15 months away. E&P 2026-28 Production Growth

60% 55%

More visibility for compelling 2026-28 FCF generation. Growth is helped by capex rolling over 50%40% 35%

from 2027: "2026 remains our peak investment year". Overall, we forecast FCF yields rising to 30%

~14% in 2027 and ~20% in 2028 ($75 Brent), supporting ~8.5% dividend yield and reducing 20%10% 20% 5% 3%

0%gearing to ~0.25x ND/EBITDA by end-28 (0.55x end-2Q26). Even at $60 oil, FCFY remains

-10%

-12%robust at ~10.5%/16.5% in 2027/28e, while gearing stays low at 0.6x (end'28); see Exhibits 2-4). -20% -2% -6% -8%

-18%

-30%

Turning focus to the next phase of growth, as major project delivery nears completion: . IPCO AKRBP ENOG ITH NWMD HBR VAR KOS TLW SQZ

Source: Jefferies estimates, company data

On the 2Q call, management noted it is "approaching the finishing line" on the ~$20bn project

pipeline sanctioned in late 2022, creating scope to pursue new growth avenues. Higher

exploration (incl. ~20% high-impact standalone prospects), organic M&A growth through

smaller transactions, and larger M&A transactions were all highlighted as future priorities —

areas where Aker BP has a good track record.

Already demonstrating what “organic M&A” can look like. Recent portfolio actions include

(1) securing ~19% stakes across licences supporting the Ringvei Vest cluster near Troll

(240 mmboe gross resources); (2) securing UK licences around Frigg, supporting a potential

Yggdrasil-area tieback; and (3) reducing its Wisting stake from 35% to 27.5% and managing its

capital exposure to ~500mmboe resource development.

PT raised to NOK 390, driven primarily by a higher EV/EBITDA-based valuation, as we roll