JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Tech unwind 3x points: Positioning updates, Technical trends, Fundamental debates / Iran: Pathway forward / Global Macro: Robust growth and no Fed hikes in 2H

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JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Tech unwind 3x points: Positioning updates, Technical trends, Fundamental debates / Iran: Pathway forward / Global Macro: Robust growth and no Fed hikes in 2H

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

19 July 2026

JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Tech unwind 3x points: Positioning

updates, Technical trends, Fundamental debates / Iran: Pathway

forward / Global Macro: Robust growth and no Fed hikes in 2H

Matthew See

+852 2800 8889

matthew.see@jpmorgan.com

APAC Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favoured investment themes.

THE BIG PICTURE: The ongoing tech/momo unwind. The SOX fell another 2% on Friday, now -20% from the June high.

Moonshot’s release of Kimi K3 added to model commoditization concerns, and BABA is also now preparing the release of

Qwen 3.8 (which they say is 2nd only to Claude Fable 5). Given the relatively smaller decline in US vs Asia tech on Fri…

Asia likely bounces this morning, e.g. TW futures up 2.4%.

3x points on the unwind. (i) HF positioning - has only moderately eased, global Semis still at 99%ile and Hardware at

89%ile since 2015, (ii) Historical precedent - we’ve seen 15x SOX drawdowns of >20% since 2012. History says you buy,

with an avg 20d/60d return of 7%/11%, but note that the rally preceding this drawdown was unprecedented, (iii)

Fundamentals - most initially saw this as a leverage & positioning unwind, but fundamental “debates” are also live on CSP

capex, model competition, & supply growth.

JPM will host a Voice Call @ 330pm HK tomorrow “AI hype to hard reset”. To discuss key flow trends, positioning and

feedback. Speakers include Borja Rodriguez Cano (Co-Head Global HT equity trading), Jigar Vakharia (Positioning

Intelligence) and Myself. Clients can register (link).