Ubisoft: Strong Black Flag Resynced launch, but refinancing remains a headache

研报英文原文证据摘录

Ubisoft: Strong Black Flag Resynced launch, but refinancing remains a headache

20 July 2026

Aleksander Peterc

+33 1 57 29 45 25

European Technology/Software aleksander.peterc@bernsteinsg.com

Ubisoft

Rating

Market-Perform

Price Target

UBI.FP 4.00 EUR (4.20 OLD)

Ubisoft: Strong Black Flag Resynced launch, but refinancing

remains a headacheMIDCAPS

Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced (ACBF-R) has delivered Ubisoft’s strongest premium

Close Date 17 Jul 2026

launch in years, materially de-risking FY27 execution but not solving the company’s balance-

UBI.FP Close Price (EUR) 5.51

sheet challenges. The key new insight in this report is a bottom-up assessment of ACBF-R’s

Price Target (EUR) 4.00

commercial potential, combining launch sell-through, Steam engagement and industry revenue

Upside/(Downside) (27)%

curves to estimate its contribution to FY27 net bookings. While the title may support upside to

52-Week Range 10.31/3.70

guidance, we believe refinancing risk remains the dominant valuation constraint.

EDME 1,592.62

Black Flag Resynced has materially outperformed Ubisoft’s recent AAA launches. FYE Mar

Ubisoft disclosed 2m copies sold on day one and 3m in the first week, while Steam peak Div Yield NA

concurrent users reached ~105k, exceeding AC Shadows by 62% and setting a franchise Market Cap (EUR) (M) 749

record. Review scores of 84-85 on Metacritic/OpenCritic represent the best reception for EV (EUR) (M) 1,122

an AC title since the original Black Flag. Taken together, the data suggest one of Ubisoft’s Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

strongest launches in recent years. Absolute (%) (14.5) 9.0 (20.1) (42.0)

EDME (%) 8.3 0.9 6.4 17.7

Our revenue framework suggests ACBF-R could become FY27’s most important new Relative (%) (22.8) 8.1 (26.5) (59.7)

release.