Ryanair: Q1 slightly below consensus, with Q2 fares trending modestly down despite recent uptick

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Ryanair: Q1 slightly below consensus, with Q2 fares trending modestly down despite recent uptick

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

20 July 2026

Ryanair Overweight

RYA.I, RYA ID

Q1 slightly below consensus, with Q2 fares trending Price (17 Jul 26):€25.96

modestly down despite recent uptick Price Target (Dec-27):€33.00

Our Take: Q1 miss with peak summer fares trending down, which is likely to see European Transport & Logistics

ACthe shares come off a bit today. Ryanair reported Q1 net income at €538m, 7% Harry J Gowers

below company consensus, driven by fares at -6% impacted by the timing of Easter (44-20) 7134-7522

and ME related uncertainty (versus down MSD % guidance and JPMe -4%), but harry.gowers@jpmorgan.com

offset by better ex-fuel unit costs at +2% (JPMe +4%). The pricing outlook for Q2 J.P. Morgan Securities plc

is a bit softer versus prior Ryanair commentary and market expectations, with Q2 Specialist Sales contact details:

fares trending modestly down versus the prior year (previously management said

Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -they expected Q2 could be broadly flat). Ryanair does report some better recent European Consumer

volume momentum into peak summer with slightly less price stimulation required (44-20) 3493-3709

and, in our view, close-in bookings could end up strong enough for fares to finish olivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com

better than current trends are showing; however, the market was also expecting

some acceleration off the back of the previous resolution in the Middle East. Other

guidance points are largely unchanged versus the last update, with costs heavily

dependent on movements in fuel and it is too early for Ryanair to provide

meaningful net income guidance for Mar-27. We expect the shares to come off