JPY Weekly

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPY Weekly

Global Markets Research

JPY Weekly 18 July 2026

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research Analysts

Holding ground

Global FX Strategy

Yujiro Goto - NSC

Key events next week: Market expectations on intervention, the GPIF, yujiro.goto@nomura.com

JGBs for retail investors, the 40yr JGB auction and CPI +81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• Weak US inflation outturns and weaker equity prices this week failed to push

yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

USD/JPY sufficiently lower. However, with USD/JPY above 162 this has kept the MOF +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

vigilant about the weaker JPY.

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC

• Retail FX investors’ largely stretched net short USD/JPY positions are likely tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

influencing the MOF’s judgment on when to intervene. It may wait until USD/JPY +81 3 6703 1427

reaches the 164-165 range before conducting another round of intervention. Yuki Kodera - NSC

yuki.kodera@nomura.com

• JGBs have positively reacted to the news on the GPIF, but we believe it is premature

+81 3 6703 1281

to expect the GPIF to largely repatriate its assets, as it has several high hurdles that it

needs to pass to increases its share of JGB holdings.

• JPY week ahead: The focus will continue to be on possible FX intervention, a

potential allocation shift by the GPIF, and the news about the possibility that individual

JGBs will be included in NISA. On the data front, there are trade statistics and national

CPI data released next week. Elsewhere, the 40yr JGB auction is scheduled for

Wednesday.

Weak US inflation outturns failed to push USD/JPY sufficiently lower

This week's US CPI and PPI data for June have somewhat eased the market's pricing for

Fed policy rate hikes this year to 27bp by end-December 2026 (was 43bp on Monday);