Adjusting Estimates For 2027-2028 Normalization Scenario; Price-Setting Primer

研报英文原文证据摘录

Adjusting Estimates For 2027-2028 Normalization Scenario; Price-Setting Primer

Methanex Corp. (MEOH)

Equity Research

July 20, 2026

The Long View: Methanex Corp.

Investment Thesis Risk/Reward - 12 Month View

The investment case for Methanex is fundamentally a call on the following:

Upside : Downside

2.61 : 1

• Methanol prices should remain volatile, reflecting chunky production 140

130 (+137%)

capacity, the addition of downstream capacity, and shifting trade flows 120

• Affordability and growth of new applications

• Sustainability of access to feedstocks 100

• Execution on new methanol capacity 80 80 (+46%)

• Rational competitive behavior

26 (-53%)

2025 2026 +12 mo.

Base Case, Upside Scenario, Downside Scenario,

$80, +46% $130, +137% $26, -53%

• Hormuz constraints ease, leading to lower oil • Strong economic demand lifts methanol prices • Recession lowers demand and pressures global

prices and lower methanol prices in 2027-2028 to reinvestment levels realized methanol prices, aggravated by a

• OCI integrated with Nat gasoline resolved • Higher oil prices steepen the cost curve widening discount

• Price Target $80, based on 8.5x 2028E EBITDA. • Industrial boiler and marine fuel applications • No incremental benefit from M&A; FCF

drive methanol demand >GDP insufficient to cover the dividend

• Peak EBITDA: $1.5B; Target EV/EBITDA Multiple • Price Target $26, ~40% of replacement value

7.2x including Geismar expansions

• Price Target $130, 100% of replacement value

including Geismar expansions

Sustainability Matters Catalysts

Top Material Issue(s): 1) Business Model Resilience has been a core part of how Methanex has both • Higher oil prices would stabilize MTO

selected projects and secured its long-term feedstock supplies.