MedTech Organic Growth Decoded: There’s More to Organic Growth – It’s Pricing, Mix, and Volumes

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MedTech Organic Growth Decoded: There’s More to Organic Growth – It’s Pricing, Mix, and Volumes

volumes. A demographic backdrop sits under all these examples, as aging

populations and expanding global access lift the treated pool over time, a slow-

moving tailwind rather than the source of the recent inflection.

• Current-quarter CEO commentary reinforces our view. In our June CEO Call

Series, ZBH's Ivan Tornos put the orthopedic market at around 4.5% with no real

signs of slowing and stated that volumes are not reverting, attributing 1Q26 softness

to weather, a competitor cyberattack, and strikes rather than demand, and citing

multi-year contracted visibility and stable ~6-month wait times at leading centers. At

our late-June Stryker NDR (see our takeaways here), management echoed it,

flagging no signs of a procedure-volume slowdown, an ortho market steady at ~5%,

and ~9 months of capital order visibility. Becton Dickinson's (BDX) Tom Polen

echoed the read, saying the company saw no material impact across its categories

and leaving its FY26 outlook unchanged, with blood collection, diagnostic testing,

and IV-set utilization (where BDX touches the large majority of US volumes)

holding steady into fiscal Q2 - the 2Q26 prints further support this. Just this week,

J&J said procedure volumes remain stable with no evidence of a broad-based

headwind to demand, and Abbott echoed it the next day, with CEO Robert

Ford pointing to healthy US procedure volumes against investors’ concerns.

Intuitive Surgical was the exception, tying what we believe to be softer benign,

deferrable procedures partly to ACA subsidy expirations, though it could not

quantify the effect and expects deferred cases to return.

• The outside datapoints matter, but they do not change the conclusion. HCA's