Eat, Drink, Shop: Mexico Consumer – 2Q26 Earnings Positioning: A Trading-Down Playbook

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Eat, Drink, Shop: Mexico Consumer – 2Q26 Earnings Positioning: A Trading-Down Playbook

loser to peaking support a better near-term cost curve

and keep EBITDA margin tracking toward the high end of management’s 25%–27% LT

target, which helps cushion downside even if volumes remain uninspiring. We see the

upside as capped, however, because the core is broadly priced in (trading around ~14x

2026E earnings, at a ~16% discount to the Mexico Consumer bundle), leaving

performance increasingly dependent on clean execution of the updated margin path

rather than a demand-led re-acceleration. We also flag that the swing risk has shifted

toward petrochemical-linked inputs (notably SAP) as oil-derivative related volatility

introduces more two-way risk into the 2Q/2H cost backdrop.

• La Comer (N rated by Mendez) – resilient sales, but SG&A ramp compresses

EBITDA. We see La Comer as relatively resilient on sales, but EBITDA can still

compress in a downtrading tape: we highlight EBITDA compression despite resilient

sales due to a meaningful cash SG&A step-up, driving EBITDA margin contraction.

Downside Risk / What to Avoid

• Walmex (N rated by Giordano) – “flat-ish margin” narrative meets SG&A

stickiness. We see Walmex as a clean example of why the quarter is likely not an

inflection: as top-line momentum softens, the operating leverage needed to protect

EBITDA becomes harder to earn when labor-driven SG&A is sticky. Consistent with that,

our framework does not reach the “flat-ish” FY26 EBITDA margin framing and still sees

in-quarter deleverage as SG&A offsets modest gross margin support.

• Chedraui (N rated by Mendez) – biggest EBITDA downside skew vs Street. We see

Chedraui as the most acute expression of the “EBITDA > revenue risk” setup in food