Rising CPU Demand Drives a Strengthening Outlook

研报英文原文证据摘录

Rising CPU Demand Drives a Strengthening Outlook

USA | Semiconductors

Arm Holdings EquityJulyResearch20, 2026

TARGET CHANGERising CPU Demand Drives a Strengthening

RATING BUYOutlook

PRICE $267.19^

We believe Arm's AGI CPU orders have further risen post FY26 results, both

because of Agentic AI driving CPU demand, as well as the signing up of new PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $320.00 ($290.00) | +20%

customers like Oracle and Bytedance. We now predict AGI CPU revenues 52W HIGH-LOW $452.70 - $100.02

of $18bn in FY31 vs guidance of $15bn. The potential launch of a GPU by FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 99.2% | 2,606.58

Softbank sometime next year based on Arm's design services is also likely MARKET CAP $285.2B

to be positive for royalties. We raise our longer-term forecasts and our PT TICKER ARM ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

from $290 to $320. noted. Price: Intraday

Demand is stronger than initially expected: Agentic AI is creating a surge in CPU demand, with

the TAM continuously getting revised up. At the Arm Everywhere event in March the company FY (Mar) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

placed the CPU TAM by 2030 at $100bn+, but estimates have now expanded to $200bn. With 2025 2026 2025 2026

Arm’s AGI CPU expected to get to at least a 15% share, revenues from these chips are likely REV NA NA NM NM

to be well above the guided $15bn in FY31. We conservatively raise our forecast from $15bn EPS NA NA NA NA

to $18bn, with Meta expected to be the biggest customer followed by OpenAI, Oracle and

ByteDance.

Possibly higher revenues in FY28-29 as well, but at lower margins: Arm had stated at its

FY26 results that AGI CPU demand had increased to $2bn over FY27 and FY28, but that it is

constrained by foundry capacity and DRAM availability. At a roadshow we hosted with Arm’s