Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Buy: Attractive interim dividend in focus

研报英文原文证据摘录

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Buy: Attractive interim dividend in focus

ing the widest product premium to spot gold, limited new product launches. We

930.00

now rebase our revenue forecasts based on the 2Q26 monthly sales run rate, lowering

our 2026/27/28e revenue estimates by c11%/22%/25%. Net profit forecasts declined by 605.00

a more modest c6%/17%/21% respectively, as higher gross margins partly offset weaker 280.00

sales. Following our revisions, our 2026/27e net profit is in line/16% below consensus, 07/25 01/26 07/26

Target price: 580.60

respectively. The stock now trades at a 11x PE27e on our EPS (which reflects a High: 863.00 Low: 346.40 Current: 373.40

12-month impact of unfavourable gold prices at spot gold of USD4,000/oz), 1.1x s.d. Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

below its historical forward PE of 20.5x (range 5.9x-45.4x) since IPO, suggesting much

Lina Yan*, CFA

of the slower earnings trajectory is already reflected in valuation. Consumer Analyst, Hong Kong and mainland China

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

Higher shareholder returns could provide support: As sales fall, Laopu should linayjyan@hsbc.com.hk

transition into a less inventory-intensive operating model, supporting stronger +852 2822 4344

operating cash flow. While the company has maintained an average full-year payout Yimin Wang*

Associate, China Consumer Research

ratio of around 76% since IPO, we believe there is scope to further increase payout. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

Assuming a 75% payout ratio, the stock now offers 2026/27e dividend yield of yimin.wang@hsbc.com.hk

+852 5696 5573

10%/9% based on our estimates; we think this provides attractive income support

while investors await a recovery in earnings momentum.