Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Grifols SA (GRLS.MC)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Group sales growth at CER (%) 7.0 2.8 3.5 4.0

Core group gross margin (%) 38.0 37.9 38.6 39.5

Core group operating margin (%) 16.5 17.7 18.3 19.1

Core EPS growth (%) 12.1 24.1 21.2 16.5

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Biopharma growth: at ~84% of sales, the plasma RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

business is the key share price driver Faster free cash flow improvement:

Margin trend: peak EBITDA margins were ~30- acceleration of cash conversion leads to faster Sales / 7,658

31%. We see a recovery towards ~26% in 2030 deleveraging Revenue 7,502 7,915

Slow uptake of competition: AAT competition (€, mn) 7,667

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE does not materialise

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 1,946 0-10%

China and India Disruption: market share loss to emerging EBITDA 1,789 1,981

0-10% India biopharma competition for the IgG and AAT (€, mn) 1,886

0-10% Japan franchises

0-10% Latin America Pipeline failure: launch delays and slow uptake

0-10% MEA for IgM and fibrinogen Net income 529

0-10% Mainland China 469 733 (€, mn)

0-10% UK 582

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 10-20% Europe ex UK

60-70% North America Inst. Owners, % Active 46.8% 0.91

EPS

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.6x (€) 0.76 0.93

View explanation of regional hierarchies here 0.86

HF Sector Net Exposure 13.1%

MS ALPHA MODELS Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

1/5 3 Month inconsistenttrends. Long/Shortwith orRatiomay =notLongreflectExposurebroader/ Shortmarket MOST Horizon

exposure.