Financials & valuation: BMW

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Financials & valuation: BMW

ificant share. For BMW, Neue Klasse will

go some way toward closing the content gap, but it doesn’t fully arrive until 2027. In 110.00

the meantime, BMW will need to balance price, volume and profit; we assume the 81.00

run-rate for the rest of 2026 will be broadly the same as H1 (down c20% YoY). 2026 52.00

may be a tough year in terms of comparisons, but a future recovery is not assured. 07/25 01/26 07/26

Target price: 71.00 High: 97.42 Low: 57.26 Current: 58.92

New management offers opportunity to reset expectations: We have for some time Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

worried about BMW’s relative optimism, especially around China, at a time when peers

were seeing multiple challenges. In fairness, BMW has fared better with BEV margin Michael Tyndall*, CFA

dilution and avoided the major investment write-downs at peers, so some of the optimism Senior Global Autos Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

was justified. We hope the substantial reduction in guidance (we cut our FY26 numbers michael.tyndall@hsbc.com

by a third at the time) opens the way for management to keep expectations realistic. We +44 20 3359 6301

are keen to see a path back to the strategic auto margin corridor of 8-10% – future Pushkar Tendolkar*

Global Autos Analyst

restructuring should help, but improvement is likely to be gradual. HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private

Limited

Upgrade to Buy from Hold; TP unchanged at EUR71.00: Using our SOTP model, pushkarnarendratendolkar@hsbc.co.in

+91 80 4555 2752

we arrive at an unchanged TP of EUR71.00. This implies c21% upside to the current

Alice Martin*

share price, driving our upgrade to Buy. Disappointing as the recent profit warning Global Autos Analyst