China Property: Takeaways from expert call with Iceberg Index: K-shaped stabilization is on the horizon

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Property: Takeaways from expert call with Iceberg Index: K-shaped stabilization is on the horizon

冰40成)), and is only 9% above the level in 2014/15 (the beginning

of the previous upcycle). Meanwhile, the M/M decline in the Iceberg 70-city

Index (based on listing prices) has narrowed from >1% in 2023-25 to -0.5% in

2026 (Figure 4Iceberg70-cityindex(secondarylistingprice)M/Mtrend). After a substantial correction over the past few years, the

expert believes the housing market has reached a new stage where home prices

are shifting from “sharp decline” to “mild decline”. While the correction may

continue, the expert expects <9% downside (i.e., unlikely to fall below the level

in 2014/15).

• Recent sales momentum has unexpectedly moderated, but Y/Y growth is

likely to remain positive: The Y/Y growth in real-time secondary sales (实时

二手成交) across major cities has moderated from +25-30% in April/May to

+10% in June/July (Figure 2Iceberg26-cityreal-timesecondarysalesvolumeY/Y). While the slowdown has been steeper than what

the expert had expected (original forecast +15% Y/Y), the expert expects

secondary sales volume to still see ~10% Y/Y growth for the rest of 2026, and

positive Y/Y growth is still his base case for 2027.

• Why the stabilization this time is different from previous ones: Since 2021,

there have been a few times where the housing market stabilized for a short

while (e.g. 4Q24) but turned out to be unsustainable. The expert said the key

difference this time is that, while sales volume has gone up, home price declines

have narrowed; previously, as volume surged, prices dropped further. This may

suggest that this time the market is undergoing a structural shift, characterized

by stabilization in total value index (a proxy to buyers’ purchasing power), rent