Mexican Banks: What to Expect in 2Q26 - An Uninspiring Quarter Ahead and Below Consensus for Most Names

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Mexican Banks: What to Expect in 2Q26 - An Uninspiring Quarter Ahead and Below Consensus for Most Names

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

17 July 2026

Mexican Banks

What to Expect in 2Q26 - An Uninspiring Quarter Ahead

and Below Consensus for Most Names

Following the recent release of May figures (link), we are updating our 2Q26 Latin American Financials

ACestimates and have also moved our price targets to Dec-2027. We expect weak set Yuri R Fernandes

of results: we are broadly in line with Banorte, Banco del Bajio, Bolsa, and (1-212) 622-3400

Qualitas, while we are ~5% below consensus for Gentera, ~8% below for Regional, yuri.r.fernandes@jpmorgan.com

and ~ 4% below for Inbursa. We believe the focus for most names will be potential J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

guidance revisions (i.e. Regional’s NIM and EPS and Gentera’s CoR and loan Guilherme Grespan AC

growth appear to be the most challenging ones). We also expect investors to ask (55-11) 4950-3058

guilherme.grespan@jpmorgan.com

about banks’ ability to accelerate growth in 2H26 - a driver that was heavily reliant Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

on the USMCA renewal and may prove disappointing. Despite greater short-term

Fernanda Sayao

uncertainty, our view is that low banking loan penetration in Mexico and fintech (55-11) 4950-6588

competition combined with high consumer demand may sustain credit growth fernanda.sayao@jpmchase.com

above 1.5x nominal GDP. Thus, we continue to call for most names printing 8-10% Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

loan growth this year. While we see Banorte and Bajio broadly in line with Diego Marquez Antonio

consensus this quarter, we also note these names should deliver mostly flat Q-o-Q (52-55) 5339-94899

earnings, which reinforces the view of a lack of momentum in 2Q26.