Risk Reward Update: Vend Marketplaces ASA | Europe

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update: Vend Marketplaces ASA | Europe

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Vend Marketplaces ASA (VEND.OL)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Nordic Marketplaces revenue (NKr,

5,795 6,378 7,254 8,215

mn)

Nordic Marketplaces EBITDA-% (%) 41.9 45.4 48.4 50.9

FINN Real Estate ARPA (NKr) 3,549 4,045 4,571 5,166

FINN Mobility ARPA (NKr) 586 667 748 828

Recommerce EBITDA-% (%) (17) (5) (1) 4

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

ARPA across verticals & countries RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Listing volumes across verticals & countries ARPA growth better than expected in Real

Labour market (Jobs vertical) Estate and Mobility, with a narrative of multi- Sales / 6,575

C2C monetisation & profitability (Recommerce) year ARPA growth trajectory ahead. Revenue 6,507 6,860

Potential further divestments in non-classifieds (NKr, mn) 6,632

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE businesses.

Recommerce turns EBITDA profitable in 2026.

2,595

More focus on costs. EBITDA

2,415 2,748

100% Europe ex UK RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (NKr, mn) 2,567

The company does not achieve higher ARPA

growth in line with CMD targets.

6.80

Recommerce margin does not improve in line EPSSource: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate (13.25) 8.47

with CMD targets. (NKr)View explanation of regional hierarchies here 5.29

OWNERSHIP POSITIONINGMS ALPHA MODELS 2.60

DPS Inst. Owners, % Active 69.1% 2.00 3.25

(NKr) 4/5 3 Month 2.61 HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.7x MOST Horizon

HF Sector Net Exposure 4.6%

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Quintile exposures held with MSPB. Information may be