Credit Market Outlook & Strategy: Time to scale into hyperscalers

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Credit Market Outlook & Strategy: Time to scale into hyperscalers

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

17 July 2026

Credit Market Outlook & Strategy

Time to scale into hyperscalers

• HG spreads are stabilizing after a negative start to the month, with spreads 3bp North America Corporate Credit -

wider MTD and returns MTD (-0.7%) on track for the second worst month Investment Grade Strategy

YTD. Higher yields (5.64%, +14bp MTD) and a modestly steeper UST curve Nathaniel Rosenbaum, CFA AC

should support demand. The credit markets are largely ignoring the resumption (1-212) 834-2370

of the Iran conflict, likely predicated on the notion that this is another phase of nathaniel.rosenbaum@jpmorgan.com

‘escalate to negotiate’. This presents some risk if the consensus is wrong, Silvi Mantri

especially as oil inventories start to dwindle again. The technical picture (1-212) 834-7239

remains mixed: inflows dipped to an 11 week low of $6.5bn this week and silvi.mantri@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

dealer inventories are at a YTD high despite somewhat underwhelming bank

supply with only half of the big 6 banks issuing debt this past week. Supply

likely stays on the lighter side for the next two weeks of earnings, and with Fed

expectations trending lower again, foreign demand metrics should improve.

• The impact of hyperscaler widening on the broader market remains quite

contained (worth just 4bp on the broader market), a positive in our view. Many

credit investors believe that insurance demand for the hyperscalers is already

at risk limits, this is an incorrect assumption in our view and we refute it in our

Growing Pains report. The hyperscaler basket is trading at 132bp currently

while BBs trade at 188bp. We view this spread widening as excessive and not