Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Regency Centers Corp (REG.O)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

FFO Growth (Row 87) (%) 8.0 4.3 3.7 4.6

Dividend Payout Ratio (Row 95) (%) 75.0 76.5 79.8 80.6

Same Store NOI Growth (Row 106)

4.1 4.8 2.6 2.6

(%)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Increased demand for need based retail real RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

estate in terms of grocery and pharmacy tenants Large scale acquisition similar to the UBP or

Deliver $1.25B to $1.5B of (re)developments EQY merger, using best-in-class balance sheet. FFO per 4.84

over the next 5 years at attractive returns. Retail bankruptcies and store closures share 4.62 4.97

SS-NOI growth through increased occupancy moderate. ($) 4.85

and annual rent escalators

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

Higher-than-expected tenant bankruptcies and 3.07

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE DPS

concerns over future rent growth. 2.96 3.45

($)

Execution missteps and delays in major ground 3.06

up developments.

100% North America Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Inst. Owners, % Active 48.9%Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

HF Sector Net Exposure 1.9%

MS ALPHA MODELS

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

4/5 24 Month 4/5 3 Month exposuresinconsistentheldwithwithor mayMSPB.notInformationreflect broadermay bemarket

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored