2Q‘26 Earnings: Solid Quarter Driven by Fee Income; Guide for 2026 Mixed

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q‘26 Earnings: Solid Quarter Driven by Fee Income; Guide for 2026 Mixed

PREV 21,068.5

*Adj EPS

Guidance for 3Q and FY26 were mixed, with a lower NII outlook only partially offset by an *Rev. (MM)

increased fee guide and reaffirmed capital return. Revenue for 3Q26 was guided up 1% Q/Q, with

NII up 1.5% Q/Q, noninterest income stable Q/Q, and noninterest expense up 2% Q/Q. Revenue

guide for FY26 was lowered to 3.5% to 4% growth (vs. prior 4%), while NII growth guide was cut to

1% to 1.5% (vs. prior 2% to 3%), reflecting a less favorable deposit mix, broad based loan spread

compression, and deliberate balance sheet optimization. NIM was guided to modestly improve

through the rest of 2026 (2Q was 2.98%) on fixed rate asset repricing (however, from a lower 2Q

base), as management framed the trajectory as more measured than a quarter ago. Fees for FY26

were raised to 10% growth (vs. prior HSD) on momentum in IB, trading, and wealth. Expense growth

for FY26 was reiterated at 1.75%. Average loans for FY26 were guided to the high end of 3%-4%

(vs 3%-4% prior), with commercial as the primary driver. NCOs were reiterated at 55 bps and the

effective tax rate at 14.5%, with FY26 buybacks held at $5B. ROTCE guide for 2026 was modestly

increased to 14%+ (vs. prior 14%), with target for 2027 reiterated at 15% and LT target reiterated

at 16%-18%.

Estimate changes and recommendation. We're maintaining our 2026 core EPS estimate of $4.55

while lowering our 2027 estimate to $5.00 from $5.10, reflecting lower NII and total revenue

assumptions. Our 2H'2026 estimates decline $0.17 (3Q26 and 4Q26 combined) on the lowered NII

guide, offset by a stronger first half that holds the full year flat. David Chiaverini, CFA * | Equity Analyst

+1 (212) 778-8554 | dchiaverini@jefferies.com