Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

on: Negative

Electric Vehicles: Negative

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target Self-help: Positive

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 16

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE €66.00 BASE CASE €47.00 BEAR CASE €21.00

11x bull case FY26e EPS of ~€6 9x base case FY27e EPS of ~€5 ~2.5x bear case EV/EBITDA of €4.0bn

If DTG continues its self-help efforts and We select a 9x P/E multiple, in between In the event of a strong truck downcycle

benefits from a stronger than expected Iveco trading near ~7x and Volvo above and tariffs in North America, EBIT margins

EPA'27 pre-buy effect in FY26, it may 12x. We think DTG should continue to trade could fall close to 6%, EBITDA could fall

achieve a group EBIT margin of c.10%, with at a discount to Volvo due to historical near €4bn. Using a low-point EV/EBITDA

FY27 EPS coming in at €6. Assuming a P/E execution, greater cyclicality and lower multiple of 2.5x implies a valuation of €21

multiple of 11x, this would put the shares on returns. A 9x multiple is well within the per share. Truck names have historically

c. €66. If DTG can benefit from strong company's historical valuation range, been much more cyclically volatile than

global truck volumes, supported by the pre- reflecting DTG's position as the best-placed other Industrials on both EBIT margin and