Brazil weekly: A window for easing

研报英文原文证据摘录

Brazil weekly: A window for easing

AmericaBanco J.P. Morgan S.A. Latin Economic Research J P M O R G A N 17 July 2026Vinicius Moreira

(55-11) 4950-3195

vinicius.moreira@jpmorgan.com

Figure 3: Headline and core IPCA forecasts

%oya

Forecasts

5.5 IPCA Core

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

Target

3.0

2.5

24 25 26 27

Source: IBGE, BCB and J.P. Morgan

In this context, we expect the BCB to pause the easing cycle with the Selic rate at 13.75%

following the September cut. Then, once El Niño passes, 2027 would begin with tight

monetary policy and a marginal tightening of fiscal policy. We expect this combination to

reduce economic growth and inflationary pressures, allowing the BCB to resume the easing

cycle in April — particularly if the next administration provides a more comprehensive fiscal

adjustment plan.

Much ado about tariffs

The data is important, but in an election year, politics is equally relevant. This week,

geopolitics again became a prominent topic in Brazil. Following the USTR’s

recommendation in early June, last night marked a new chapter in the history of U.S. tariffs

on Brazilian exports. On the back of investigations under Section 301, the US adopted a 25%

import levy on Brazilian goods, justified primarily by arguments concerning unfair trade

practices.

The list of exceptions — which includes oil, coffee, aircraft and parts, beef, and orange juice

— covers almost 50% of what Brazil exported to the US before the tariff discussion began

in 2025. Considering that the 25% tariff is not stacked on top of the 10% global tariff under

Section 122, about a quarter of Brazil’s exports are covered by a different tariff regime under

Section 232 (typically 50%, 25%, or 10%), and about a quarter fall under the 25% Section

301 tariff.