ManpowerGroup: One Small Step for MAN, One Giant Leap for the Stock; Strong 2Q26 Results and 3Q26 Outlook

研报英文原文证据摘录

ManpowerGroup: One Small Step for MAN, One Giant Leap for the Stock; Strong 2Q26 Results and 3Q26 Outlook

Andrew C. Steinerman AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-2527 17 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

andrew.steinerman@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

ManpowerGroup is cyclical but also benefits from the secular

trend of increasing flexibility in labor costs and a mix shift

towards higher skilled workers. In our view, there is tension

between the potential for a cyclical lift in labor activity and the

emergence of secular risks from AI disruption in 2026. These

factors make judging the shape of a staffing recovery difficult.

On an EV/revenue basis, the MAN stock is trading around the

low end of valuation ranges established in past recessions,

suggesting the stock already reflects a significant level of labor

YTD 1m 3m 12m risk. Still, without greater clarity around the shape of the

Abs 73.7% 51.0% 66.6% 19.8%

Rel 53.8% 49.8% 57.2% -13.7% temporary help recovery, we remain on the sidelines on the

MAN stock.

Company Data

Valuation

Shares O/S (mn) 47

52-week range ($) 53.00-25.15 We are establishing a December 2027 price target of $59, up

Market cap ($ mn) 2,448.21 from our December 2026 price target of $34. Our PT is based on

Exchange rate 1.00

Free float (%) 98.0% a P/E multiple of 7.5x on our 2028 EPS estimate, representing

3M ADV (mn) 1.12 14% upside from the current MAN stock price. Our PT implies

3M ADV ($ mn) 36.6 an EV/revenue multiple of 0.18x applied to our 2028 revenue

Volatility (90 Day) 71

Index RUSSELL 2000 estimate.

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 4|8|0

Key Metrics (FYE Dec) Performance Drivers

$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 17,957 19,301 20,119 20,938

Adj.