1H26 Preview

研报英文原文证据摘录

1H26 Preview

China (PRC) | Consumer Staples

Nongfu Spring EquityJulyResearch17, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGE1H26 Preview

We expect NF to report 1H26 results with a 15/13% rise in sales/NP, with RATING HOLD

sales mainly driven by continued strong growth of tea drinks, and recovery PRICE HK$42.02^

of water segment (notably in 1Q). 2Q momentum likely moderated due to PRICE TARGET | % TO PT HK$47.50 (HK$50.50) |

unfavorable weather and softer macro. We believe it is on track to deliver +13%

52W HIGH-LOW HK$56.25 - HK$39.22

full-year DD% growth target, while 2H GPM may face some uncertainties

FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 16.0% | 34.07

in PET/agricultural input costs. Our new PT is HK$47.5, implying 28/25x

MARKET CAP HK$472.6B | $60.3B

2026E/27E PE. Maintain Hold.

TICKER 9633 HK

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

We expect Nongfu to deliver 1H26 NP growth of ~13% YoY to RMB8.6bn, on sales growth of noted.

~15.2% YoY to RMB29.5bn. Our assumptions are as below:

Sales likely to increase by c.15% to RMB29.5bn: 2Q growth likely softened due to rainy FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

weather / flooding disruptions in some regions, impacting overall beverage consumption. RTD 2026 2027 2026 2027

tea continues to outperform, remaining the key topline driver. REV -3% -4% NM NM

EPS NM NM -5% -3%

Water: We expect the water segment to report ~10% growth YoY. We believe 1Q•

continued to benefit from channel recovery on a low base, while 2Q weakened sequentially 2026 (RMB) 1Half 2Half FY

due to adverse weather conditions. Market share gains are expected to continue.

EPS -- -- 1.54

Other beverages: We expect Tea drinks sales to grow by ~21% for 1H26, with Oriental• PREV 1.53

Leaf being the core growth engine. We expect functional drinks/ juice beverages to grow