Epiroc: Q2‘26 Results - First Take - Orders miss by 4% but underlying margin development better than headline miss (-40bps)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Epiroc: Q2‘26 Results - First Take - Orders miss by 4% but underlying margin development better than headline miss (-40bps)

Chitrita C Sinha AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-7176 17 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

chitrita.sinha@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Epiroc (Neutral; Price Target: Skr300.00)

Investment Thesis

• A quality play on the mining cycle. Mining represents ~75% of Epiroc sales. Our

detailed analysis of the through-cycle performance of our mining equipment coverage

over the past decade confirms that Epiroc has been the strongest franchise in the space.

• Structurally attractive end market. We believe the mining market is set to benefit

from increased demand to support the proliferation of electrification and address metals

supply/demand deficits. New equipment demand is supported by well-developed,

resilient and high-margin aftermarket revenue streams.

• Risk-reward is better downstream. We prefer to play the copper capex theme in the

downstream players where valuation is more supportive.

Valuation

Our December 2027 price target is based on a reverse DCF valuation. The 12-month forward

target multiple is 19.0x EV/adj. EBITA, applied to our 2028 forecasts. The multiple takes

into account the through-cycle growth, margin, cost of capital and asset intensity.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

We see the following risks to our rating and price target:

• Risks to the upside: 1) Mining spend re-accelerates; 2) Use of the balance sheet

firepower; 3) Capital moves to defensive business models if the macro backdrop

deteriorates.

• Risks to the downside: 1) Mining spend remains subdued for longer than expected, 2)

Capital allocation strategy fails to deliver targeted growth/returns, 3) Investor

positioning looks for more cyclical exposure.