SHASTA and the Furious; Thinking through Potential Outcomes

研报英文原文证据摘录

SHASTA and the Furious; Thinking through Potential Outcomes

Brian Cheng AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-0449 17 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

brian.cheng@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Arrowhead Pharma (Overweight; Price Target: $95.00)

Investment Thesis

We rate ARWR Overweight. ARWR’s highly diverse RNAi portfolio is led by the recently

approved and the company’s first commercial drug, Redemplo, forming a beachhead in the

small but important FCS indication. This launch is laying the groundwork for potential

indication expansion into the relatively untapped and very large sHTG indication. ARWR

is running two Ph 3 trials expected to read out in 3Q26, with potential expansion into sHTG

in 2027. Beyond Redemplo, ARWR has a deep and broad pipeline across multiple targets

and indications building on its 20+ years of RNAi experience and is in a well-capitalized

position, strengthened by its many partnerships, which have become a mainstay of the

company’s strategy.

Valuation

Our Dec 2026 price target of $95 is based on our DCF SOTP calculation. We assume

standalone contributions from Redemplo in FCS and sHTG, Zodasiran in HoFH, ARO-

MAPT in Alzheimer’s disease and ARO-INHBE/ALK7 in obesity. Our $95 price target

consists of $48/share for Redemplo in sHTG, $ for Redemplo in FCS, $5 for zodasiran in

HoFH, $1 for ARO-MAPT in Alzheimer’s disease and $10 for ARO-INHBE/ALK7 in

obesity. We also assume ~$12/share from potential milestone payments with the remainder

of the price coming from cash, pipeline and NOLs. Our assumptions are based on $15K-

$475K pricing, 10-15% GTN, and 10% COGS. We also assume 5%-60% peak penetration

depending on the stage of development, the unmet needs and evidence to date.

Risks to Rating and Price Target